St Louis Mortgage and Real Estate News -
St Louis Lending and Customer Financing News: Economic Predictions Are Down
St Louis Home Mortgage and Consumer Finance | Principal Reduction Program | 877-334-0210 or 314-334-0210 | Floyd Tapia, Commercial Mortgage, Customer Finance and Loan Reduction
Various St. Louis mortgage brokers reported that approximately six months ago, Goldman Sachs projected that the economy would grow at a 4 percent annual rate in the quarter ending in June. The company now expects the government to report no more than 2 percent growth when data for the second quarter is released in a few weeks.
Macroeconomic Advisers, a research firm, projected 3.5 percent growth back in April and is now down to just 2.1 percent for this quarter. Both these firms, well respected in their analysis, have cut their forecasts for the second half of the year as well.
Then this week, the Federal Reserve downgraded its projections for the full year, to under 3 percent growth. It started the year with guidance as high as 3.9 percent. Two years into the official recovery, the economy is still behaving like a plane taxiing indefinitely on the runway. Few economists are predicting an out-and-out return to recession, but the risk has increased, with the health of the American economy depending in part on what is really “transitory.”
During the first press conference in the central bank’s history two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke used the word to describe factors including supply chain disruptions after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and rising oil prices that were restraining economic growth in the first half of the year.
Earlier this week, Mr. Bernanke confessed that “some of these headwinds may be stronger and more persistent than we thought,” adding, “we don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting.” What’s more, government stimulants like the payroll tax cut and the extension of unemployment benefits are scheduled to expire at the end of this year.
With the underlying economy undeniably tepid, economists are concerned that further shocks to the system could knock the country off its slow upward trajectory. “The likelihood of a negative surprise is bigger than the likelihood of a positive surprise,” said Jerry A. Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds.
There was a glimmer of hope on Friday when the government reported that orders for appliances and other equipment from manufacturers were higher than expected in May. And the Commerce Department edged up its estimate of growth in the first three months of the year to 1.9 percent, from 1.8 percent.
The slow place of the economy’s expansion is not entirely surprising, though it is clearly painful for those who are out of work and whose homes are worth far less than a few years ago. Many economists, most prominently Kenneth S. Rogoff and Carmen M. Reinhart, have emphasized that recovering from a financial crisis takes much longer than from a normal cyclical recession.
Jan Hatzius, the chief United States economist at Goldman Sachs, said that in fact, households appeared to be paying down debt largely as expected. “Most of the things that looked like they were improving six months ago still look like they are improving,” he said.
Analysts generally expect the economy to pick up in the second half as supplies from Japan come back and car production resumes at some temporarily idled plants. “Parts producers are getting back online a lot quicker than anybody had thought,” said Ben Herzon, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers.
The firm is forecasting 3.5 percent overall economic growth in the second half of the year, though that is down from its projection at the beginning of the year of 4 to 4.5 percent. Consumer spending has been lukewarm as people have cut back elsewhere to cover for higher prices at the pump.
Although gas prices have eased in the wake of the International Energy Agency’s announcement that it would release some emergency stockpiles of oil, there is no guarantee prices won’t climb again as turmoil in the Middle East continues. In the meantime, customers remain wary.
“A lot of the factors that will give us a boost in the second half are largely temporary and will run their course at some point,” said David Greenlaw, chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley.
We appreciate your visit… how about liking us on Facebook for this St Louis mortgage and customer finance article?
scrolling="no" frameborder="0"
style="border:none; width:450px; height:80px">
=============================================
Articles and Sponsors
Business Owners and Medical Groups: You can now offer customer financing and consumer finance programs to your customers and patients. We are the lender and have approximately $2.7 Billion dollars to loan. Best of all, there is NO risk, NO recourse and NO new equipment to lease for your and your company or medical group. Once your customer is approved, your money is in your bank account within 48 to 72 hours. Turn your credit declines into cash by calling Floyd Tapia at (314) 627-5729.
In addition, if you need commercial financing or a merchant account company that will save you money, Floyd Tapia and his lending and new business resources team can focus on bringing you innovative private lending solutions and financial services to meet all types of financing needs. Let us turn your challenges into closings (or from being underwater equity wise) and help you get a St Louis commercial lending, mortgage or financing loan.
Check back daily for more financial news.
============================================
St Louis Beauty Supply and Avon – Kristin Tapia
In-House Financing, Consumer Lending and Customer Financing
To “read” the boxy black-and-white bar code above, you’ll need a smartphone. If you need a reader APP, you can => Download a QR code APP reader here for your smartphone.